Benno Hartwig schrieb:
Betrachte andererseits die Elogewinne bei Kernverdopplung (und Geschwindigkeitsverdopplung bringt sicher ja noch etwas mehr)
hier Stockfish 10 (CEGT 40/20)
1 3414
2
4 3484
8 3516
Hier sind die Remisquoten gegen Komodo und Houdini in der Gegend von 70%.
Hier ahne ich das Ende der Fahnenstange noch nicht!
Aber wir werden es ja beobachten können.
Meine These: wir werden auch die nächsten 20 Jahre regelmäßig deutliche Fortschritte erleben.
Vielleicht etwas abgebremst, mehr aber nicht.
Ich weise darauf hin, dass das Stockfish Projekt theoretisch zu jeder Zeit enden kann.
Und zwar dann wenn der Hardwarestifter:
ChessDBCN aufhört die Rechenpower zur Verfügung zu stellen.
http://tests.stockfishchess.org/usersEr stiftet gefühlt 99,9% aller
Kerne alleine.
Die Entwickler werden evtl. alle bleiben, aber die Hardwarepower für Tests würde fehlen.
Bzw. die Stockfish Entwicklung könnte sich um das 100-fache verlangsamen.
Wie viel ELO das im Jahr macht, kann sich jeder selbst ausrechnen.
Machine Cores MNps System Version Running on Last updated
tschmoderer 7 1.68 Linux 5.3.0-24-generic 71:2 search4 seconds ago
dew 3 1.11 Linux 4.9.76-gentoo-r1 71:2 search4 4 minutes ago
JojoM 6 1.06 Linux 3.16.0-7-amd64 71:2 search4 6 minutes ago
mgrabiak 4 0.72 Windows 10 71:2 search4 seconds ago
dew 3 1.12 Linux 4.9.76-gentoo-r1 71:2 search4 seconds ago
dew 3 1.10 Linux 4.9.76-gentoo-r1 71:2 search4 2 minutes ago
dew 3 1.10 Linux 4.9.76-gentoo-r1 71:2 search4 seconds ago
dew 3 1.11 Linux 4.9.76-gentoo-r1 71:2 search4 seconds ago
dew 3 1.16 Linux 3.2.12-gentoo 71:2 search4 5 minutes ago
dew 3 1.11 Linux 4.9.76-gentoo-r1 71:2 search4 6 minutes ago
dew 3 1.06 Linux 3.18.7-gentoo 71:3 search4 7 minutes ago
0xB00B1ES 2 1.51 Windows 10 71:2 search4 seconds ago
dew 3 1.10 Linux 4.9.76-gentoo-r1 71:2 search4 seconds ago
manap 4 1.57 Windows 10 71:2 search4 seconds ago
fastgm 4 1.40 Linux 4.4.0-18362-Microsoft 71:2 search4 seconds ago
JojoM 3 1.05 Linux 3.16.0-7-amd64 71:2 search4 seconds ago
dew 3 1.14 Linux 4.0.5-gentoo 71:3 search4 seconds ago
mgrabiak 3 0.77 Windows 10 71:2 search4 seconds ago
dew 3 1.17 Linux 2.6.36-gentoo-r5 71:2 search4 5 minutes ago
drabel 1 1.70 Windows 10 71:2 search4 seconds ago
dew 3 1.26 Linux 4.8.17-hardened-r2 71:2 search4 2 minutes ago
dew 3 0.93 Linux 3.15.10-hardened-r1 71:3 search4 2 minutes ago
dew 3 1.09 Linux 3.18.9-hardened 71:3 search4 6 minutes ago
sunu 2 1.21 Linux 5.4.0-1.slh.1-aptosid-amd64 71:2 search4 seconds ago
JojoM 1 1.05 Linux 3.16.0-7-amd64 71:2 search4 4 minutes ago
dew 3 0.90 Windows 2003Server 71:2 search4 12 minutes ago
JojoM 1 1.06 Linux 3.16.0-7-amd64 71:2 search4 22 minutes ago
dew 3 1.06 Linux 4.0.5-gentoo 71:3 search4 9 minutes ago
JojoM 1 0.99 Linux 3.16.0-7-amd64 71:2 search4 3 minutes ago
racerschmacer 1 1.71 Windows 10 71:2 search4 seconds ago
mhoram 1 1.16 Linux 4.19.0-6-amd64 71:3 search4 11 minutes ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.36 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 master seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.35 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 master seconds ago
tvijlbrief 14 1.32 Linux 4.15.0-73-generic 71:3 master seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 master seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.47 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 master seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 0.00 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 optimism seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 0.00 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 optimism seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.60 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 optimism seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 0.00 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 optimism seconds ago
pirt 4 2.02 Windows 10 71:2 optimism seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.35 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 optimism seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.37 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 optimism seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.37 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 optimism seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.61 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 optimism seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.61 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 optimism seconds ago
tvijlbrief 4 1.81 Linux 4.4.0-165-generic 71:3 optimism seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 0.00 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 0.00 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 0.00 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
MaZePallas 4 1.65 Linux 5.3.16-300.fc31.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
dew 2 1.14 Linux 3.12.13-gentoo 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
rkl 2 2.19 Linux 5.3.9-1.el8.elrepo.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.37 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
robal 2 2.10 Windows 10 71:2 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.37 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
mhoram 3 2.21 Linux 4.19.0-6-amd64 71:2 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.47 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.60 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.47 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 0.00 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.60 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.47 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.60 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.60 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.49 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
gvreuls 16 1.55 Linux 5.3.16-200.fc30.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
Gero 1 1.71 Windows 10 71:2 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.60 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.60 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
dew 3 1.13 Linux 4.9.0-8-amd64 71:2 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.60 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.36 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.35 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
cuistot 2 2.67 Windows 10 71:2 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
TueRens 3 1.93 Windows 7 71:2 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.37 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.34 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
gvreuls 4 0.92 Linux 5.3.16-300.fc31.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.47 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.31 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.37 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.37 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.38 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.61 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.47 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.34 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.38 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.47 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.60 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.42 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
velislav 3 2.01 Linux 5.3.0-23-generic 71:2 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.44 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.30 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
AndreasKrug 1 1.09 Linux 5.3.0-3-amd64 71:2 Progressiv_LowFail 2 minutes ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.36 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.49 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.35 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.38 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.38 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.47 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.49 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.50 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.34 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.47 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.47 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.28 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.38 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.49 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.38 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.47 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
dew 3 1.05 Linux 3.4.2-hardened 71:2 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.31 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.38 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.28 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
grandphish2 5 1.73 Windows 10 71:2 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.39 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.49 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
dew 1 0.75 Windows 2003Server 71:2 Progressiv_LowFail 3 minutes ago
dew 3 1.36 Linux 4.1.15-gentoo-r1 71:2 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
AndreasKrug 1 1.06 Linux 5.3.0-3-amd64 71:2 Progressiv_LowFail seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 0.00 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 0.00 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.60 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 0.00 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.60 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.60 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.48 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
ChessDBCN 8 1.20 Linux 3.10.0-1062.9.1.el7.x86_64 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
dew 3 1.44 Linux 3.17.7-hardened-r1 71:3 pvDraw2 seconds ago
choco 1 1.18 Linux 4.8.0-53-generic 71:2 pvDraw2 seconds ago
leszek 7 0.91 Windows 7 71:2 pvDraw2 seconds ago